And The Nominees Are...

Jumping The Gun
Predicting the 2009 Academy Awards

Who's going to get nominated? Isn't that the hardest question to answer? Sure, after the nominations have been announced and everything is said and done, it gets a little easier to narrow down that list and make estimated guesses on who will in fact win the Oscar. And hey, even if you haven't seen many of the films in consideration, you can always have fun with it and root for that one film you did see that blew you away.

Before we get to the glitz and glam of the red carpet, the elegant dresses and sharp tuxedos, and of course - that ominous "hurry it the hell up already" acceptance speech music, we've got to consider the performances and the films that comprised this year in cinema. Here are some of my initial, fairly conservative, predictions:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen
, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black,
 Milk
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
, WALL-E

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, 
Frost/Nixon
David Hare, 
The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, 
Slumdog Millionaire

I'd like to see The Wrestler pull down a Best Picture and Best Director nomination, but there just doesn't seem to be any room for it. Basically 90% of the predictions I've made here are already locked in as a sure thing. I'd like to tell you that Cate Blanchett would get nominated for Best Actress, but I'm not sure if she'll make the cut. Michael Sheen seems deserving of the Best Supporting Actor nomination - though for some reason I have a feeling Robert Downey Jr. is locked in, but we all know Ledger will win (he damn well better, anyway).

After the official nominations are announced I'll be back with some more speculation and prediction as to the winners. This has been a fairly tight year in terms of contenders across the board. Last year it seems everything came down to There Will Be Blood or No Country For Old Men, but this year there are some pretty heated races and it looks like we're in for a cinematic battle royale on the red carpet.

Upcoming Calendar of Award Season Events:

Jan. 5	New York Film Critics Circle Awards	New York, NY
Jan. 5	Producers Guild of America Nominations Announced
Jan. 7	WGA Screen Nominees Announced
Jan. 8	DGA Film Nominees Announced
Jan. 11	Golden Globe Awards	Beverly Hilton, Los Angeles
Jan. 15-25	Sundance Film Festival	Park City, UT
Jan. 22	Oscar Nominations Announced
Jan. 24	Producers Guild of America Awards
Jan. 25	Screen Actor Guild Awards
Jan. 31	Directors Guild Awards
Feb. 2	Oscar Nominees Luncheon
Feb. 7	Writers Guild Awards
Feb. 8	BAFTA Awards
Feb. 21	Independent Spirit Awards
Feb. 22	Academy Awards	Kodak Theater, Hollywood